On June 11th Günther H. Oettinger invited our company members to a virtual debrief on the outcomes of the 2024 European Elections. Here is a summary of what we can expect from the upcoming legislature in Brussels.
URSULA VON DER LEYEN POISED FOR RE-ELECTION
The path to securing von der Leyen’s re-election appears increasingly clear, thanks to a cooperative stance from key political factions. The European People’s Party (EPP), Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and Liberals are expected to form a robust coalition, ensuring a solid majority in the European Parliament. Insider suggest that von der Leyen may also seek to bolster her support by courting the Greens and progressive elements within the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). Notably, her collaboration with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni signals a pragmatic approach to consolidating her position.
Top Jobs and Strategic Appointments
In the high-stakes game of EU top jobs, the Socialists, as the second-largest bloc, are likely to leverage their position to secure influential roles. Antonio Costa, the former Prime Minister of Portugal, emerges as a prime candidate for the European Council presidency. Meanwhile, the Liberals are eyeing the High Representative for Foreign Affairs post, with the Prime Minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas mentioned as a plausible nominee.
Roberta Metsola’s re-election as the President of the European Parliament is also on the table, potentially as part of a compromise that could see a socialist, such as Katharina Barley, succeed her mid-term. Additionally, Spain’s Nadia María Calviño Santamaría has been appointed for the European Investment Bank (EIB) presidency.
Policy Shifts and Future Mandates
The last five years under von der Leyen have been dominated by the Green Deal, a cornerstone of her administration and the one and only priority for the past legislature. However, the next term is expected to pivot towards a more balanced and pragmatic approach, focusing on economic growth and competitiveness. This recalibration responds to criticisms that the Green Deal’s ambitious targets have strained Europe’s industrial base.
Moving forward, the EU’s agenda is set to prioritize European energy policy integration, cybersecurity, support for Ukraine, migration, investment in research via Horizon Europe and reducing bureaucratic hurdles. The focus will be on pragmatic implementation rather than expanding legislative frameworks. President Emmanuel Macron of France has underscored the need for this paradigm shift, emphasizing implementation over new regulation.
Implementation Challenges
Industry faces the monumental task of implementing a number of legislative pieces adopted in the last term, translating into specific acts in the hundreds in some cases. The business community is urged to engage with EU bodies through platforms like Business Europe and
European Associations to address legislative burdens and foster consistency. In 2025, the market will be checked and green policies further reviewed. We can expect some pragmatic changes in 2026.
Geopolitical Considerations
Europe’s geopolitical stance remains delicately poised between the US and China. The European Union is a transatlantic European Union, near the United States but asserting its independent global influence. A robust trade policy, exemplified by agreements like CETA or Mercosur, is crucial for maintaining Europe’s export strength and global partnerships. Europe needs a strong first row with a strong High Representative for foreign affairs and a strong European Council President.