Three Issues, Two Elections Years: Why Europe Must now focus on What Matters
While Günther H. Oettinger delivered his welcome address at the F.A.Z. European Conference at the Allianz Forum on September 9, the Federal Chancellor was speaking at the same time in the Allianz Forum on September 9, the Federal Chancellor was speaking at the same time in the general debate in the German Bundestag. Antonio Costa, President of European Council, was in Berlin to negotiate the EU budget. And the President of the United Arab Emirates also came to the capital to discuss partnerships beyond Washington D.C. and Peking. Rarely has a single day shown so clearly where the stage of the future lies: not in the small print, but in the big picture.
Forget Everything Else: Security, Competitiveness, Debt Sustainability
The message was unmistakable. In the coming years, there will be only three issues: security, competitiveness and debt sustainability. That goes for Berlin, Munich, Stuttgart, Brussels and the world. Everything else is a sideshow.
Two Election Years That will Decide Europe’s Decision
On top of that come two election years that will shape Europe. In 2027, France, Italy, Spain and Poland go to the polls, four of the largest member states in the Union. The question is simple: where is Europe ‘s governance heading? Le Pen or Tusk? Meloni or Sanchez? In Germany, we like to talk about our own crises. But the real crisis year, with these four elections, is still ahead of us.
In 2029, the Bundestag’s term comes to an end, and in the same year Europe elects a new Parliament. Only if Europe prospers, grows closer and holds together will democratic parties be elected and succeed in the next Bundestag.
Two major election years, three decisive issues.
It’s the economy, stupid!
The numbers are sobering. China is growing by 4 to 5%, India by 6 to 7%. Europe manages about 1%, and Germany is stagnating, struggling with recession and stagnation. Without the massive new borrowing, Germany would be facing a recession.
At the same time, neither society nor the parties show much willingness to accept reforms. The warning was correspondingly stark: if we do not reform this country, Germany will lose its democracy. That is why it all comes down to the economy to competitiveness and growth. Why aren’t we paying enough attention to our economic strength? Just like on the football pitch, business and politics are about teamwork, precise passes and good headers. Whoever dribbles alone looses the ball.
Trust Instead of Mistrust
Oettinger had critical words for Brussels because Ursula von der Leyen does not put the economy front and centre enough. It’s about jobs, yet incentives for investors are lacking. There has never been as much bureaucracy as there is today!
Trust, not mistrust, must become the watchword. We have to trust our entrepreneurs.
Team Europe Line-Up
Europe needs a strong team and a smart line-up so as not to be crushed in the sandwhich position between Bejing and Washington DC. Europe consists of two groups of member states. One group is small states. The other is states that know they are small.
And Germany? Does Germany know that it is a dwarf, alone, without Europe? Dwarves can only stand up to the giants from Bejing, Washington and Moscow as a team.
Europe must focus on what matters and must not lose itself in trivialities. Security, competitiveness and debt sustainability. Everything else has to wait.